happy new year! there weren’t many product launches last week with the new year’s holiday. i expect things to start picking up again next week.
in the meantime, i’ll zoom out this issue to share my top five product predictions for 2026, based on patterns i saw across 1,000+ product launches from top tech companies in 2025.
1. chat-based commerce is the next big thing
in 2025, instacart and walmart built chatgpt integrations that let users shop for household goods and groceries directly inside chatgpt. in 2026, i predict we’ll start seeing everyday consumers purchase products from major retailers directly from within chatgpt. no links or redirects, just a complete browsing and checkout flow embedded entirely within chatgpt.
2. a chatgpt-native unicorn will be born
in 2025, openai launched a chatgpt app store. just as the internet and smartphones sparked platform shifts that disrupted incumbents and gave rise to new iconic startups (e.g. uber, instagram), chatgpt’s app store signals a new platform shift, where the primary interface is the chat itself.
in 2026, i expect a new breakout startup to emerge built with chatgpt as the core product surface, with no separate app ui. platform shifts are rare, and they inevitably shake things up: dooming incumbents and giving birth to waves of new generational tech companies. future founders: don’t miss this opportunity.
3. ai moves upstream to the os layer
in 2025, software companies shipped hundreds of new ai features. in 2026, many of those features will be made obsolete by native versions from microsoft and apple, built directly into their operating systems
microsoft is rebuilding windows to be “ai-native,” and baking ai copilots directly into excel and powerpoint. apple is putting live translation directly into airpods. your ai features are vulnerable to obsolescence, because the default that ships with windows or ios will be one click away, and good enough that most users won’t bother seeking an alternative.
4. robotaxis go mainstream, nationwide
after a decade of slow progress, robotaxis are hitting an inflection point. waymo is now in la and nyc, complete with freeway rides. tesla is testing robotaxis in austin and sf. lyft launched robotaxi services in atlanta. my 2026 prediction: robotaxis go mainstream in major cities across the country, even amid inevitable accidents and the corresponding pr crises.
5. ai browsers steadily gain early-adopter share
in 2025, every major ai research lab and tech giant launched an ai browser product. chatgpt launched atlas. perplexity launched comet. microsoft added copilot to edge. google baked gemini into chrome. this makes sense, as ai assistants need context to be useful, and whoever owns your browser gets unparalleled context: what you search, what you watch, what you buy.
at first, i found them pretty mid, but comet has quietly become my default browser. in 2026, i predict most people still won’t switch, since chrome/safari are “good enough,” and there’s no killer feature yet. however, early adopters will keep trickling in, as (1) the companies building these browsers market them aggressively, and (2) ai browsers get better at controlling your screen to complete rote tasks